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Published Aug 28, 21
4 min read

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However, intermediate investors seem to be susceptible to problems at the other end of the cycle. They have trouble staying the course at market highs. They panic when the market hits new highs week after week, not realizing that is a normal part of market cycles. The market is actually near or at all-time highs most of the time.

Advanced investors have seen both of those movies before and know how they end. They take a long-term perspective and stick with their plan. However, there are times when an asset allocation shift is reasonable because of changes in your life or in your investments. For example, if a recent bull market has enabled you to reach “enough” or made it so you no longer need to take so much risk with your portfolio, it's reasonable to dial it back.

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Identifying a frenzy in advance is not particularly difficult if you are familiar with financial history. Knowing when it ends, however, is very difficult and often requires a functioning crystal ball. Bill Bernstein has given four criteria for identifying a market mania, and suggests the time to be careful is when you have seen three of the four: Everyone around you is talking about stocks (or real estate or whatever the fad asset of the day is).

When people begin quitting their jobs to day trade or become a mortgage broker. When someone exhibits skepticism about the prospects for stocks and people don’t just disagree with them, but they do so vehemently and tell them they’re an idiot for not understanding things. When you start to see extreme predictions.

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More recently, I have seen people who have either quit their jobs, been fired, or who are simply home a lot more often day trading or gambling in the markets. Witness how Wall Street Bets had so many people sign up for their subreddit that the moderators couldn't even read all of the posts, much less moderate them.

Or that SPACs are similar to that company in the South Sea Bubble that was “For carrying-on an undertaking of great advantage but no-one to know what it is.” Trees don't grow to the sky and stocks don't go “to the moon”, despite how many people think they will. Citi analysts are predicting $300,000 Bitcoin by the end of 2021.

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Certainly lots of reasons to be cautious out there. The difficulty, of course, is determining whether we are in the equivalent of 1996 or 1999. Good luck with that. So today, I wanted to explain seven ways that you can protect your portfolio from a market crash. Note that these methods are not all equal.

But they do have the potential to protect you. If you choose to use one of these, I would encourage you to include exactly how you are going to do so in your written investing plan. Emotion and rapid movement is the enemy of a sound investing plan. Perhaps the greatest protection is knowing that the vast majority of the money you will invest in your lifetime has not yet been earned.

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A 70-year-old might not feel that way, but a 25-year old should. If you have a $50,000 portfolio and are earning $200,000 a year, a market crash is no tragedy at all. Your retirement nest egg is almost completely protected because it isn't in the market yet. It hasn't even been earned yet.

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The classic diversifier for a stock portfolio is fixed income. This ranges from long-term bonds to cash. The further left you are on that spectrum, the more interest rate risk you are running. If we're talking about nominal bonds, there is also more inflation risk on that side of the spectrum.

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73%. Another way to hedge against a stock market decline is to simply have your money in something besides stocks. There are obviously downsides to not investing in the most profitable companies in the history of the world. The main one is you don't get to participate in the good times, which is actually most of the time.

Even the Vanguard REIT index (real estate flavored stock) has only a moderate correlation to the overall market. Volatile with historical real (after-inflation) returns of 0%, gold and silver may not be everyone's cup of tea. But once or twice a generation, especially in times of high inflation, investors seem to flock to the metals in a way that justifies holding a small percentage of the portfolio in them for the long term.